LIVESTOCK: BIWEEKLY INSIGHTS - Report No. 5 2018

03 April 2018
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Weaner prices have been trending downwards as we are now in the weaner marketing season. On the other hand, beef, lamb and mutton prices are also trending downwards due to consumer resistance to high prices. Pork prices are under pressure due to ongoing listeria-related concerns surrounding certain processed meat brands. More than 50% of domestically produced pork is processed. Wool prices are trending downwards due to resistance to high prices. On the other hand, there is high demand for kid and young adult mohair.

Weaner prices are trending downwards as we are now in the weaner marketing season.

All prices of beef are still higher compared to a year ago. However, all prices have marginally declined week-on-week (w/w). The average prices of Class AB2/AB3 and A2/A3 have declined to R45.58/kg and R42.65 or 0.8% and 1%, respectively, w/w. Prices are expected to pick up during the Easter weekend on the back of high demand, then ease over the rest of April.

The beef feedlot profitability ratio is still conducive for the beef feedlot industry.

The beef feedlot profitability ratio weakened by 1.5% w/w, to 23:1. This was due to an increase in yellow maize prices by 1.47% w/w, and a 0.01% w/w decline in the beef price. This ratio is expected to remain flat but favourable on the back of stable yellow maize and beef prices. This ratio has been above the industry norm of 13:1 for more than a year.

Lamb and mutton prices are trending lower.

All prices of lamb and mutton declined w/w. This can be attributed to consumer resistance to high lamb and mutton prices. The prices of Class AB2/AB3 and B2/B3 have declined by 4.8% and 7.6%, to R59.99/kg and R58.30/kg, respectively, w/w.

Pork prices are trading mixed.

The average porker price has increased by 5.5% w/w to R25.57/kg. On the other hand, the average price of baconers has decreased by 5.9% to reach R25.43/kg, w/w. Listeria-related concerns associated with some processed meat brands could have a negative impact on the
pork prices.

Broiler prices are estimated to move sideways due to a stabilising rand.

The price of SA frozen chicken and SA fresh chicken improved by 1.19% and 0.22%, to R26.30/kg and R27.10/kg, respectively, w/w. This can be attributed to higher demand for chicken on the back of high red meat prices. The price of IQF chicken declined by 0.25% to R24.30/kg w/w.

The average price movements of the South African and Australian wool

  • All prices for wool eased across the board.
  • The domestic wool price indicator closed 1.9% lower at R177.02/kg compared to theprevious auction.
  • The domestic price of 19-micron wool and 21-micron wool decreased by 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively, compared to the previous auction.
  • The rand is estimated to have had a little influence on wool trade.
  • There were 6 040 bales on offer, with 98.6% being sold during the auction.
  • The Australian wool market indicator weakened by 3.93% compared to previous auction.
  • The Australian price of 19-micron wool and 21-micron wool also decreased by 5.13% and 2.34%, respectively.
  • The decline in the price of wool was estimated to be mainly due to resistance to high wool prices. However, demand for wool is expected to pick up.

The average price movements on the South African mohair market

  • The third mohair sale took place on 20 March 2018, with 131 130 kg on offer.
  • This was 9% lower compared to the previous sale.
  • About 98.4% of the offering was sold.
  • The average kid segment price has improved by 8.2%, to R366.42/kg compared to R338.54/kg during the previous sale.
  • The average young goat mohair price also improved by 1.6% compared to previous sale.
  • The average adult mohair price dipped slightly compared to the previous sale.The average mohair price was 1.4% higher compared to the previous auction. This was mainly driven by higher demand for better quality kid mohair by the European market.

Sources
Australian Wool Innovation Limited.
Cape Wools South Africa.
Grain South Africa.
Red Meat Abattoir Association.

Disclaimer: Standard Bank South Africa accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this report and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this report.

maine.mofokeng@standardbank.co.za


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