LIVESTOCK: BIWEEKLY INSIGHTS - Report No. 3 2018

05 March 2018
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Beef prices are trading mixed on the back of restricted supply of weaners in the market. On the other hand, beef to maize price ratio is favourable for feedlots with low maize price that is expected to remain flat in the short to medium term. Lamb and mutton prices are expected to trend downwards due reduced demand. Pork prices are expected to trend upwards with expected improvement in demand. The strong rand against major trading partners is expected to put pressure on the South African chicken and wool prices.

Beef and weaner calf prices

Beef prices are trading mixed. It is expected that the beef prices will remain high on the back of reduced slaughtering

The average price of class A2/A3 and AB2/AB3 marginally increased by 0.1% and 0.4% w/w respectively, to R46.80/kg and R45.85/kg. The average prices of class B2/B3 and C2/C3 declined to R43.18/kg and R43.08/kg, or 0.6% and 0.3% w/w, respectively. The average price of weaners declined by 1.5% w/w.

Beef to maize price ratio

Beef to maize price ratio is favourable for feedlots due to low yellow maize price.

The average beef to maize price ratio has improved by 1.42% w/w, to 24.9:1. This was supported by 1.83% decline in the yellow maize price. This ratio is 60% higher y/y. It is expected to remain high due to low maize prices.

Lamb and mutton prices

Lamb and mutton prices are trading mixed with reduced demand.

In week 7, the average price of C2/C3 was 6.7% higher w/w, at the vicinity of R56.19/kg. The average prices of class AB2/AB3 and B2/B3 declined by 6% and 0.2% w/w, or to R62.22/kg and R59.94/kg, respectively. Low prices are estimated to be the results of high inventory stock of mutton in the market.

Pork prices

Pork prices are on the upwards trend.

Both prices of porker and baconer marginally increased by 0.3% and 0.1% w/w respectively to R27.85/kg and R28.50/kg. This trend is expected to increase due to high beef and mutton prices. Consumers are expected to switch to pork as it is one of the cheapest source of animal protein.

Boiler prices

All prices of chicken are trending downwards.

The average price of the SA Frozen chicken and Fresh chicken declined by 0.42% and 0.48% w/w, respectively to R26.25/kg and R27.03/kg. The average price of IQF also declined by 0.52% w/w to R24.70/kg. Competition from low chicken imports from oversees due to the strong rand against the US dollar is estimated to be one of the factors that are putting

The average price movement of the South African and Australian wool

  • The domestic wool price indicator at the recent auction traded 0.6% lower compared to the previous wool auction. It closed at R183.84/kg (clean).
  • The domestic price of the 19-micron wool went down by 0.9%, to close at R199.21/kg and the 21-micron wool remained flat at R169.80/kg.
  • Despite China’s new year holidays, there was strong demand for wool in the market.
  • Strong rand against major trading partners’ currency is estimated not to had a big impact on the sale of wool. It only improved by less 1% compared to the previous auction.
  • In terms of South African rand, the Australian wool price indicator has also decreased by 2.75%, to R168.42/kg (clean) compared to the previous auction. However, according to the Australian Wool Market report, the Australian wool price indicator has improved by 0.44% at the back of strong demand for quality wool.

Sources
Australian Wool Innovation Limited.
Cape Wools South Africa.Grain South Africa.
Red Meat Abattoir Association.

Standard Bank

Disclaimer: Standard Bank South Africa accepts no responsibility for any application, use or interpretation of the information contained in this report and disclaims all liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from the use of this report.


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